Aaron Milstein and SethK appear to have cracked the Mousehunt 3.0 Catch Rate equation. Sam Siebert’s equation based on Mousehunt 2.0 data was pretty far off in some regions after the release of Longtail (Mousehunt 3.0). These data also draw on Paul Humphreys’s updated mouse power and effectiveness estimates.
A summary of these updates can be seen on this spreadsheet.
The catch rate of a mouse is dependent on Trap Power (T), Trap Effectiveness (Eff), Luck, and Mouse Power (M). In the new equation for the Longtail release of Mousehunt (version 3.0), the catch rate can be estimated by this equation :
Check out the plots Seth has provided, they have me convinced.
I am pretty much sold on this equation. Seth K however, does mention a few caveats
1) Data compiled by COMBINING results from Nick A and Nathan Y’s databases (submitted between 8/1/2010 and today)–yes we are aware there are people who post logs to BOTH, and therefore there is some data duplication, which means the error bars will be a bit larger than represented in the graphs…
2) Two anomalous mice have been noted (neither shown in these graphs). The first is the Squeaker claws which ought to be a 100% catch but isn’t–we are not sure exactly why–it is the ONLY anomalous event mouse. The other is the Swarm of Pygmy–it is acting in terms of CR like a 3000-power shadow mouse currently (it was 3000 power according to Paul Humphreys in MH2, but he raised it to 4000 just recently for MH3–I personally believe this is an error by Paul, because the in-game power order displayed on the mice page of the application supports 3000 but not 4000.
3) Ideally I would like to have much more data for smaller error bars like we had at the time we were working on the MH2 equation that Sam Siebert ultimately solved, but we just don’t at this point. We have to make do with what we have.
Very impressive work guys. I hope that I was able to help out in sparking a reexamination of the equation, but I certainly wasn’t thinking it would come out like this.