Catch Rate Estimates


A new formula has been found!  This page is out of date. GO HERE

In Mousehunt, everyone wants to know what the best trap to use in their situation.  Ask on the forums and you are bound to get a variety of conflicting advice.  How can you decide who is correct? How do we properly evaluate the relative strengths of traps?  We need to have an estimate for the catch rate of a mouse based on trap properties.

The catch rate of a mouse is dependent on Trap Power (T), Trap Effectiveness (Eff), Luck, and Mouse Power (M).   For most locations, this catch rate appears to follow this formula.

Using this equation, we can visualize the effect of Trap Power, Effectiveness and Luck for a bunch of different mouse powers.

In the following plots, Trap Power is on the x-axis, and Catch Rate is on the y-axis.  The colors indicate the total Luck of the trap (including base and lucky golden shield), increasing from 0 (blue) to 45 (red). Each panel indicates an effectiveness rating which is dependent on mouse and trap class (Shadow, Physical, Tactical, etc).  Normal effectiveness is 100%.  The curves show the estimated catch rate for a given Trap Power, Mouse Power, Luck and Effectiveness.

The first panel is for a mouse power of 100, this is around the power of a Wiggler mouse, stronger than a White or Brown mouse, and weaker than a Dwarf.

The second panel is for mouse power of 300, around the power of a Mutated White, a bit stronger than a Dwarf, and weaker than a Steel mouse.

The third panel is for mouse power of 1000, around the power of a Diamond, a bit stronger than a Bionic, and weaker than a Elven Princess mouse.

The fourth panel is for mouse power of 3000, around the power of a Wordsmith, a bit stronger than a Zombie, and weaker than a Keeper’s Assistant mouse.

The fifth panel is for mouse power of 10000, around the power of a Renegade, a bit stronger than a Furoma Student, and weaker than a Furoma Master mouse.

The sixth panel is for mouse power of 30000, around the power of a Master of the Dojo, a bit stronger than a Magma Carrier, and weaker than a Dragon mouse.

This equation was not discovered by me, I just made the pretty plots. For much more info on mouse powers, the development of this equation, and even some places where it seems to be a bit off, check out the links on the MouseHunt Data 3.1 spreadsheet.

Below is a table of mouse powers I compiled from data from Paul H, Geoff O and probably others.  Click for high res.

If you would like to play around with the code used to generate these plots, a Matlab m-file is below


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4 Responses to Catch Rate Estimates

  1. Seth says:

    Nice, I had made similar plots after Sam discovered the equation (actually I plotted CR on the Y, mouse power on the X with each panel having many mice in a similar grouping, with a specific trap.

    I dont distribute them anymore though since the equation has not been verified in MH3 yet.

    • andrewhires says:

      I think the equation is pretty well established at this point except for sg and zt and a few other issues which may be due to tweaking of mouse power valurs

      • Sam Siebert says:

        I’m pretty sure that the formula *doesn’t* apply to v3 – I’ve rechecked some of the parameters for mice which appear to break the trend – (students vs 2010, grunts vs chillbot). What does confuse me is why CoT/magma/LGS still seems to miss pygmies occasionally (rumoured. I don’t have the magma base so I can’t personally verify it) – but I haven’t had a chance to get a good read on their power/effectiveness yet.

  2. Chua Zhihong says:

    I can confirm that Clock/Mag/Shield does miss pygmies. It’s not even a 99% catch rate (like it was in v2), but closer to 97% now.

    Like Sam said, catch rates in Derr and Furoma have been very strange in particular. Chillbot/mag/shield is ~98% against Grunts and 100% for everything under. 2010/mag/shield WAS 100% against students.

    Note the “WAS”; there are starting to be misses in the recent weeks in both databases now. Plus there are also starting to be misses on previously v3 100% mice (which also defied the formula) in Cats, spider, scavenger to name a few.

    I’m pretty sure the devs tweaked something recently; who knows if they’ll continue tweaking!

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